Forecasts, projections and scenarios

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Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

Authors Johann Fuchs, Doris Soehnlein, Brigitte Weber, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 3
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1 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries

Authors Adrian E. Raftery, Adrian E. Raftery, Jennifer L. Chunn, ...
Year 2013
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 58
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2 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

Authors Jonathan J. Azose, Adrian E. Raftery
Year 2015
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 9
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3 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

Authors Jonathan J. Azose, Adrian E. Raftery
Year 2015
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
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4 Journal Article

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method

Authors Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Peter W. F. Smith, James Raymer, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 25
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5 Journal Article

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method

Authors Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Peter W. F. Smith, James Raymer, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
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6 Journal Article

Volume 48 Index

Year 2011
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
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7 Journal Article

EACH-FOR: Environmental change and forced migration scenarios

Year 2007
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Abstract
Forced migration is a movement in which an element of coercion exists, including threats to life and livelihood, whether arising from natural or man-made causes (e.g. movements of refugees and internally displaced persons). The changes of natural and man-made environment will probably be the most significant factors among the causes of forced migration. It is essential to get accurate information about the current and future triggers of forced migration in each country of origin and within Europe itself. The two year long project's general objectives are to support European policies, research and the civil society with'forced migration' scenarios, and cooperate with other migration and environment degradation related projects and institutions. The objectives will be achieved by five interlinked research sequences: 1) forecasting the natural and anthropogenic causes of forced migration; 2) analyzing direct (e.g. desertification) and indirect (e.g. conflicts) environmental effects on livelihoods; 3) predicting potential forced migration flows, with emphasis on environmental refugees; 4) contributing to the preparation of statistical indicators to measure environmental refugee flows; 5) dissemination. The study of the causes is a multidisciplinary and multisectoral process. The list of methodological tools contains all traditional elements of research from primary data collection via statistical analysis and environmental evaluation to modelling. The studied cases are selected from the following regions: Europe and Russia, NIS and Central Asia, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana, Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America. The project will produce detailed sub-region or country level forced migration scenarios, including environmental refugees; presentation of causes leading to forced migration, with focus on environmental concerns; and an online running "environment degradation caused forced migration" model for demonstration and policy purposes.
8 Project

Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex: An Example of the Hamilton–Perry Method in Action

Authors David A. Swanson, Alan Schlottmann, Bob Schmidt
Year 2010
Journal Name POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 22
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9 Journal Article

Adolescent offenders' current whereabouts predict locations of their future crimes

Authors Wim Bernasco
Year 2019
Journal Name PLOS ONE
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10 Journal Article

A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method

Authors Goran Dominioni, Addolorata Marasco, Alessandro Romano
Year 2018
Journal Name QUALITY & QUANTITY
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11 Journal Article

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

Authors Marianne Frank Hansen, T Tranaes, Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen
Year 2017
Journal Name JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS
Citations (WoS) 1
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12 Journal Article

The future of Australia's Indigenous Population, 2011-61

Authors T Wilson
Year 2016
Journal Name POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 1
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13 Journal Article

Multistep ahead forecasting of vector time series

Authors Tucker McElroy, Michael W. McCracken
Year 2017
Journal Name ECONOMETRIC REVIEWS
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14 Journal Article

Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

Authors Patrice Dion, Eric Caron-Malenfant, Chantal Grondin, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 3
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15 Journal Article

Google Trends and tourists' arrivals: Emerging biases and proposed corrections

Authors Theologos Dergiades, Bing Pan, Eleni Mavragani
Year 2018
Journal Name TOURISM MANAGEMENT
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16 Journal Article

Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models

Authors Guy J. Abel
Year 2018
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
Citations (WoS) 1
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17 Journal Article

A Bayesian semiparametric approach for trend-seasonal interaction: an application to migration forecasts

Authors Alice Milivinti, Giacomo Benini
Year 2019
Journal Name JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
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18 Journal Article

Return Migration After Brain Drain: A Simulation Approach

Authors Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Alessandro Pluchino, Andrea Rapisarda
Year 2013
Journal Name JASSS-THE JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL SOCIETIES AND SOCIAL SIMULATION
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19 Journal Article

Aerodynamic Effects of Road Topography and Meteorological Conditions on Time-Trialling Cycling Performance

Authors Pascual Marques-Bruna, Paul Grimshaw
Year 2008
Journal Name INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCE & COACHING
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20 Journal Article

Changes in contemporary migrations to the Amazon: indicative of the case of gauchos to Roraima

Authors Pedro Marcelo Staevie
Year 2017
Journal Name NOVOS CADERNOS NAEA
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21 Journal Article

TOWARDS A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF UNETHICAL MARKETING PRACTICES IN TOURISM: A CASE-STUDY OF AUSTRALIA'S INBOUND CHINESE TRAVEL MARKET

Authors Roger March
Year 2008
Journal Name JOURNAL OF TRAVEL & TOURISM MARKETING
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22 Journal Article

Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration

Authors Rafael Prieto Curiel, Luca Pappalardo, Lorenzo Gabrielli, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name PLOS ONE
Citations (WoS) 2
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23 Journal Article

Overview of Trends and Policies on International Migration to East Asia: Comparing Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Authors Yean-Ju Lee
Year 2011
Journal Name ASIAN AND PACIFIC MIGRATION JOURNAL
Citations (WoS) 5
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24 Journal Article

Overview of Trends and Policies on International Migration to East Asia: Comparing Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Authors Yean-Ju Lee
Year 2011
Journal Name ASIAN AND PACIFIC MIGRATION JOURNAL
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25 Journal Article

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

Authors Alisson F. Barbieri, Edson Domingues, Bernardo L. Queiroz, ...
Year 2010
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 54
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26 Journal Article

Disasters, migrations, and the unintended consequences of urbanization: What's the harm in getting out of harm's way?

Authors Christopher Wolsko, Elizabeth Marino
Year 2016
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 3
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27 Journal Article

Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey

Authors Koko Warner
Year 2011
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 21
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28 Journal Article

Discriminatory and Nondiscriminatory Trade Costs

Year 2016
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Abstract
In recent decades, Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) have become increasingly prevalent. A common way of assessing costs and benefits of RTAs is by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach. CGE based studies then use this framework to forecast for example, the trade growth, job creation, and welfare gains from forming RTAs. Unfortunately, their predictions poorly match the actual medium to long run outcomes of existing RTAs. With RTAs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnerships (TTIP) currently under negotiation, CGE analysis plays a central role in the negotiation process. Therefore the accuracy of CGE models is of paramount importance. One way in which modern CGE models fall short is in their overly simplistic approach to trade costs. This includes both their measurement and their place in the underlying model. In particular, CGE studies to date fail to account for within-country trade costs, i.e. trade costs which are non-discriminatory as they apply to both domestic and foreign firms. Instead, they focus solely on discriminatory trade costs which apply only to foreigners. This has critical implications both in how to measure trade costs (as many compare within-country to cross-border trade and therefore combine discriminatory and non-discriminatory trade costs) and in how to include them in the analysis. As the goal of RTAs is to reduce trade barriers, this oversight can result in incorrect expectations on an RTA's impact and therefore wrong policy recommendations. The aim of COST project is to develop trade cost measures and specifications for modelling impacts of trade costs for CGE models that overcome these methodological and modelling limitations and consequently improve accuracy of future CGE studies in predicting the costs and benefits of RTAs.
29 Project

Current European and Cross-National Comparative Research and Research Actions on Migration

Year 2018
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Abstract
Migration and the characteristics which constitute its parameters, dynamics and complexities comprises one of the most paramount matters in contemporary Europe. Under these designated circumstances, the necessity of relevant, concise, and useful knowledge are prerequisites for the design of efficient and constructive policies. Although particular databases such as EUROSTAT and OECD offer valuable insights into these migratory dynamics, a comprehensive, efficient and integrative database which synthesizes, categorizes and maps out the vast analytical accounts on migration throughout Europe is non-existent. This project, bringing together 16 leading research institutions, networks and policy institutes throughout Europe, aims to proficiently fulfill this gap crucial for policy-purposes through the construction of a central migration hub. This hub will be of instrumental value due to its capability to operate as a key grammar in the design of current and future policy. Essentially, it accumulates and consolidates past, present and future migration research through providing an extensive yet succinct overview of migration drivers, infrastructures, flows, and policies, allowing for an improved systematic understanding of the factors that constitute the interaction between these analytical categories. The accessibility, accumulation and integration of research in one hub will be an integral element for improved policy making as it concentrates and visualizes relevant data – thereby facilitating information acquisition in pursuance of policy oriented goals. As of such, a continuous research-policy dialogue is prevalent throughout the construction of the hub, an insight which enables its users to visualize and develop migration scenarios- entailing a classification system for migration research. Consequently, the project aims to shape a strategic research agenda on migration as it will identify gaps, overlaps and connections within the available stock of migration research
30 Project

'Knowledgeable' Governors of Uncertainty? International Organisations in the Absence of a Global Migration Regime

Year 2013
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Abstract
The MIGGOV seeks to break new ground in the analysis of international organizations (IOs) as key objects of study in the broader research field of international migration governance and of international governance more generally. The key questions are: to what extent, how and why do IOs impact upon and shape international migration governance in the absence of a global migration regime. In order to address these questions the project shifts the focus from international governance as a (changing) structure to international governors as sources of agency and to the outcomes that flow from interactions between various agents. As most international migration governance takes place under conditions of uncertainty about future migration scenarios, this project will specifically explore the issues of the production and the use of expert knowledge by IOs striving to impact upon international migration governance. The project will study the involvement of eight IOs in migration governance in Central Asia, which has been selected for analysis because it has so far escaped the attention of scholars despite evidence of multi-layered migration governance in the region. The project will specifically look at four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that share many similar features, but also exhibit some distinct political and socio-economic differences that make them highly relevant objects of study. The focus on Central Asia is also justified by the strategic importance that many international actors, including the EU, ascribe to the region. In addition to the Central Asian regional case study and intra-regional comparisons, the MIGGOV will produce overarching comparisons with the EU’s ‘Eastern Neighbourhood’. The project addresses topics on which the EU has called for further research in its 2013 Work Programme, namely those within activities 8.3 ‘Major trends in society and their implications’ and 8.4 ‘Europe in the World’.
31 Project

Climate change: understanding anthropogenic contributions and responses

Authors Donald R. Nelson
Year 2010
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 2
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32 Journal Article

A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications

Authors Chris J. Lloyd, Paul S. F. Yip, Raymond Kwok
Year 2019
Journal Name JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
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33 Journal Article

Past and future drought in Mongolia

Authors Amy Hessl, Benjamin I. Cook, Hanqin Tian, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name SCIENCE ADVANCES
Citations (WoS) 12
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34 Journal Article

Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives

Authors K. C. Samir, Wolfgang Lutz
Year 2014
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 22
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35 Journal Article

Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

Authors T Wilson, Philip H. Rees
Year 2005
Journal Name POPULATION SPACE AND PLACE
Citations (WoS) 54
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36 Journal Article

Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China

Year 2017
Journal Name SCIENCE ADVANCES
Citations (WoS) 27
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37 Journal Article

Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria

Authors Michaela Potancokova, Anne Goujon, Sandra Jurasszovich
Year 2018
Journal Name JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND INTEGRATION
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38 Journal Article

Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria

Authors Michaela Potancokova, Anne Goujon, Sandra Jurasszovich
Year 2018
Journal Name JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND INTEGRATION
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39 Journal Article

Temporary Migration Programmes: the Cause or Antidote of Migrant Worker Exploitation in UK Agriculture

Authors Erica Consterdine, Sahizer Samuk
Year 2018
Journal Name JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND INTEGRATION
Citations (WoS) 1
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40 Journal Article

Temporary Migration Programmes: the Cause or Antidote of Migrant Worker Exploitation in UK Agriculture

Authors Erica Consterdine, Sahizer Samuk
Year 2018
Journal Name JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND INTEGRATION
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41 Journal Article

RISKS OF THE HIGH-SCALE IMMIGRATION IN THE PUBLIC DISCOURSE OF RUSSIA

Authors Vasil T. Sakaev
Year 2018
Journal Name REVISTA SAN GREGORIO
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42 Journal Article

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

Authors F Willekens, Sabine Zinn, Matthias Leuchter
Year 2017
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 2
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43 Journal Article

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

Authors F Willekens, Sabine Zinn, Matthias Leuchter
Year 2017
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
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44 Journal Article

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

Authors Lilian Patricia Sales, P de Marco, Rafael D. Loyola, ...
Year 2017
Journal Name PLOS ONE
Citations (WoS) 6
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45 Journal Article

Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts

Authors T Wilson
Year 2016
Journal Name POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 11
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46 Journal Article

Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Authors Adne Cappelen, Terje Skjerpen, Marianne Tonnessen
Year 2015
Journal Name INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 6
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47 Journal Article

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model - Tanzania

Authors Christopher D. Smith
Year 2014
Journal Name CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
Citations (WoS) 18
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48 Journal Article

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model - Tanzania

Authors Christopher D. Smith
Year 2014
Journal Name CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT
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49 Journal Article

Distortion of regional old-age mortality due to late-life migration in the Netherlands?

Authors Eva Kibele, Fanny Janssen
Year 2013
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH
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50 Journal Article

Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise

Authors Katherine Curtis, Annemarie Schneider
Year 2011
Journal Name POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
Citations (WoS) 41
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51 Journal Article

Forecasting conservation needs for endangered fauna:integrating landscape ecology and ethnoecology to predict habitat quality for the kodkod cat (Leopardus guigna) in the Chilean temperate rainforest

Year 2010
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Abstract
Habitat loss, alteration and fragmentation represent severe threats to biodiversity globally. Wild cats, which generally require large areas over which to forage, are particularly affected by fragmentation and human-felid conflicts. Whereas considerable research has been directed towards large carnivores, smaller more cryptic species have received comparatively little attention. The kodkod or güiña (Leopardus guigna) is the smallest of the neotropical cats and has one of the most restricted distributions known for felids occupying a narrow strip within south-central Chile and Argentina, the core area of indigenous Mapuche communities. The kodkod is classified as vulnerable by IUCN. Principal threats are habitat loss due to agricultural land use and retribution killing after attacks on poultry. The general aim of the project is to explore how projected future social and economic development of the fragmented and ethnically heterogeneous Araucanía region will affect habitat availability for the kodkod on private lands. An auto-ecological study will use radio-telemetry for the first time in the northern pre-Andean distribution range to assess habitat use, home range and activity patterns. An ethno-ecological study will provide understanding of the human environment context in which the kodkod lives. Through quantitative and qualitative interviews with Mapuche people and other socio-cultural groups of landowners knowledge and attitudes will be explored. Linking the ecological, ethnic and social information with geographic information, future land use scenarios will be modelled. This allows strategies to be identified for mitigating conflicts between the development process and habitat quality, and for the role of the kodkod as a cultural keystone species for use in conservation education. Training will be achieved in interdisciplinary aspects of biodiversity conservation (ethnoecology) and its methodologies (telemetry, Geographical Information Systems).
52 Project

The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

Year 2009
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Abstract
The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.
53 Project

COHORT: The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

Year 2009
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Abstract
The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.
54 Project

Multiregional cohort enrolment projections: matching methods to enrolment policies

Authors Stuart H. Sweeney, Erin J. Middleton
Year 2005
Journal Name POPULATION SPACE AND PLACE
Citations (WoS) 3
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55 Journal Article

The Media Marketplace for Garbled Demography

Authors Michael S. Teitelbaum
Year 2004
Journal Name POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 19
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56 Journal Article

Forecasting Enrollments for Immigrant Entry-Port School Districts

Authors Peter A. Morrison
Year 2000
Journal Name DEMOGRAPHY
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57 Journal Article

The development and use of demographic models

Authors A Coale, James Trussell
Year 1996
Journal Name POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY
Citations (WoS) 15
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58 Journal Article

STATISTICAL GRADUATION IN LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC-ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION

Authors P Congdon
Year 1993
Journal Name JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY
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59 Journal Article

Poles Apart? EU Enlargement and the Labour Market Outcomes of Immigrants in the United Kingdom

Authors Stephen Drinkwater, John Eade, Michal Garapich
Year 2009
Journal Name INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
Citations (WoS) 112
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60 Journal Article

Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach

Authors Roel Jennissen
Year 2007
Journal Name POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW
Citations (WoS) 29
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61 Journal Article
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